But some cold water is being poured on these predictions by Beecham Research, which advises ‘don’t believe the hype’. In fact, it believes these predictions to be ‘unrealistic’.
Chief executive Robin Duke-Woolley has taken a look at the numbers and has asked some fundamental questions, including ‘why?’ and ‘how?’.
Noting the long term growth rate in the connected device market has been between 20 and 30%, Duke-Woolley wonders just what is likely to accelerate that growth rate. “There is no answer to that question,” he says.
Addressing suggestions that big growth will come from connected devices in homes and workplaces, Beecham Research believes the benefits of these devices are still not clear. “While some households may have a dozen or more connected devices, there is no evidence yet of connected devices in the home taking off in a big way,” says Duke-Woolley.
Even if the growth targets are met and those billions of devices are ready, he believes there won’t be enough people to install them.
“We need to get real here,” he concluded.
And yet the well respected chief executive of the Weightless SIG, Professor William Webb, contends that estimates of 50bn devices could be short of the mark. Addressing the recent Electronics Design Show Conference, Prof Webb said anything up to 500bn devices ‘could be possible’.
If that is the case, Duke-Woolley’s view that not enough people are available to install these devices is even more relevant.
But Prof Webb highlighted another important point; if demand for the IoT does take off to the extent he envisions, will the semiconductor industry have enough capacity?
Industry watcher Gartner’s Hype Cycle has the IoT as ready to slip into the trough of disillusionment – and you can understand why.
