If you plot semiconductor sales against time, it’s relatively easy to draw a straight line through the data points; with the gradient of that line showing annual sales growth of 15%. Sales for 2017 are expected to be $380billion – maybe more – and industry watchers are predicting the $400billion mark will be passed in 2018. If – when – that happens, the market will be four times the size it was in 1994.
But that ‘straight line’ lies over a white knuckle roller coaster ride of ‘boom and bust’, with capacity outstripping demand for a while, after which demand outstrips capacity.
The current boom – semiconductor sales in 2017 are expected to be 17% higher than in 2016 – is being ascribed to rising memory prices because demand is outstripping supply.
'Twas ever thus.
