02 November 2009
Market recovery 'not running out of steam'
August 2009 IC sales were up 1.7% on July, according to market analyst Future Horizons.
The rise, says the report, is driven by a 2.2% increase in ASPs and a 0.5% fall in units. Malcolm Penn, chairman and ceo, Future Horizons, said that when taken into isolation, both the ASP and unit trends were in line with normal 'month two of the quarter' expectations. Penn said: "They… show that the market recovery is not running out of steam as the Q1 inventory correction starts to peter out."
Penn believes that real demand is starting to pick up the baton and it is paving the way for a 'blockbuster Q3'. "Already, firms are starting to show results well above our 12% sequential forecast," he noted.
As a result of the better than forecast Q3 results, Future Horizons will be upping its Q4 and total 2009 forecast in next month's report. Penn added: "If September's sales continue to track July and August's performance, Q3 will grow in the 18% region, increasing the likelihood of Q4 to grow 5 to 6% rather than our current 3% assumption."
This would put 2009's market at $220billion, down 10% instead of the previously forecast 14%. Penn explained: "Even a modest quarterly growth patter on this yields a minimum 20% growth for 2010, to around $275billion – sizeably more than its 2007 peak. Just as the perfect storm killed 2001, the perfect calm will drive the 2009-2010 recovery. Time to rewrite the 2010 business plans now."
Author
Chris Shaw
Supporting Information
Websites
http://www.futurehorizons.com
Companies
Future Horizons
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