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23/11/2009
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Worldwide pc shipments will grow 2.8% in 2009, says market analyst Gartner in its preliminary fourth quarter forecast.
 However, while the global market has noticeably improved, says Gatner, pc revenue will decline 11% and analysts remain cautious.
The new forecast predicts worldwide shipments will total 298.9million units in 2009, a 2.8% increase from 2008. In 2010, pc shipments are projected to reach 333.6million units, a 12.6% increase over 2009. This forecast is more optimistic than Gartner's final September forecast, which anticipated a 2% decline in shipments for 2009.
Gartner's research director, George Shiffler, said: "Shipments in the third quarter of 2009 were much stronger than we expected, and that alone virtually guaranteed we would see positive growth this year. We're anticipating seasonally modest growth in the fourth quarter of 2009, but because shipments were so weak in the fourth quarter of 2008, growth will appear quite strong. This could lull vendors and market watchers into thinking the market is recovering faster than it really is."
While Gartner anticipates pc shipments to increase in 2009, the market value of pc shipments is still projected to decline. The market value of global PC shipments is now forecast to total $217billion in 2009, a 10.7% decline from 2008. Gartner is now projecting the market value of pc shipments to reach $222.9bn in 2010, a 2.6% increase over 2009.
Shiffler cites the drop on the unprecedented declines in pc average selling prices this year. He noted that the rapid decline reflects a 'marked shift' towards lower price points as customers have looked for cheap but adequate pcs. He added: "Vendors have tried to spur market growth by catering to ever lower price points. We expect pc ASP declines to slow as the market recovers, but given the market's competitive dynamic, we don't see pc ASPs rising any time soon. As a result, growth in the market value of shipments will significantly lag shipment growth next year and beyond."
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Author
Chris Shaw
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